Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas

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code.

CB-ADV-OIL-GAS

length.

2 days

type.

Instructor-Led

partner.

Oracle

price.

$1,200

With so many risks and uncertainties associated with production forecasts, drilling costs, reservoir properties, operating expenses, and oil / gas prices, it is extraordinarily difficult to forecast earnings and cash flow for even the simplest prospects. This two-day course will teach the participants how to model uncertainty and risk, identify key drivers, and then refine them using an advanced suite of professional modeling tools. The course also shows how to evaluate individual prospects, and then how to combine them into a working portfolio optimized on your key business indicators.

This course is intended for Oil & Gas professionals involved in evaluating the economic potential of oil and gas wells, prospects, and portfolios. The audience includes asset team engineers and geoscientists charged with providing inputs and running corporate economic evaluations, as well as supervisors to mid-level management who want a hands-on understanding of modeling uncertainty associated with exploration and production operations.

Learn To:

	Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball
	Advanced Oil &Gas Modeling Using Crystal Ball

There are currently no scheduled dates for this course. If you are interested in this course, request a course date with the links below.

who can benefit

This course is intended for Oil & Gas professionals involved in evaluating the economic potential of oil and gas wells, prospects, and portfolios. This audience includes asset team engineers and geoscientists charged with providing inputs and running corporate economic evaluations, as well as supervisors to mid-level management who want a hands-on understanding of modeling uncertainty associated with exploration and production operations.

Attendees should have a good working knowledge of Excel, however, experience with Crystal Ball is not a prerequisite, as beginning concepts and techniques are covered (or reviewed depending on the student\'s experience) in the first 1/2 day of the course.

prerequisites

Advanced preparation includes:

	An introductory understanding of Excel
	Competence with Windows operating systems (NT 4.0 or later).

skills gained

By the end of this two-day course, you will have learned:

	Understand Tornado Charting and analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
	Convert Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for uncertainties
	Incorporate historical drilling and completion costs and other historical data Into Simulation
	Understand Correlated / Dependent assumptions and their importance to Simulation
	Learn Monte Carlo Simulation and analysis of results
	Implement Time Series Forecasting
	Use multiple business requirements and constraints including Markowitz Efficient Frontier and Sharpe's Ratio for portfolio optimization
	Understand the basics of Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal Ball

course content details

	What is Monte Carlo Simulation

How does it differ from Traditional Analysis

	Converting Spreadsheet Models to Account for Uncertainty

	Defining assumptions using Distributions
	Fitting to historical data
	Correlating dependent assumptions
	Defining forecasts and using them to predict outcomes

	How to define Parameters for running Monte Carlo Simulation

	Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation outcomes

	Sensitivity Analysis
	Trend Charting
	Overlay Plots

	Application of Crystal Ball to variety of Financial / Business Models

	Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect

	Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting

	Incorporating historical drilling and completion costs and other historical data into Simulation

	Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their importance to O&G Simulation

	Value of Information Modeling: Shoot seismic or not?

	nte Carlo Simulation and analysis of drilling results

	Forecasting oil prices using Time Series forecasting: Crystal Ball Predictor

	Drilling / Prospect Portfolio Optimization using multiple business requirements and constraints: Optquest

	Bootstrapping Analysis

	2D Simulation: isolating difficult or unknown assumptions